Back in the 1970’s, in paranoia movies like Three Days Of The Condor, the projected day when the oil ran out was also when civilization collapsed and the barbarians busted down the gates. With this ancient cultural toxin lodged firmly in my lizard mind, I was obviously dismayed when the latest email arrived from our highly informed pal Aeswiren
“This came in from Energy and Capital newsletter. While global warming is on many minds, we should also be thinking about the ongoing decline in oil production. Panic may be just a few months away. More than one-quarter of our crude production comes from just 20 oilfields. Most of these massive oil fields were discovered about 50 years ago. Another 50% of global oil supply comes from about 110 other fields, with the remaining production produced by approximately 70,000 smaller fields. The natural rate of decline in fields past their peak was approximately 9%. Of course, of those 20 largest oilfields, every one of them has passed their peak production. If you really want an idea of what can happen to these oil fields, look no further than the once-mighty Cantarell field in Mexico.
Discovered in 1976, the Cantarell field was the second largest oil producing field in the world at one point. In 2000, Pemex began injecting nitrogen into the field. Three years later, Cantarell was pumping out 2.1 million barrels per day.
Since then, the field has been in an out-of-control death spiral that nothing could stop. Production started to decline at a rate of 14% per year. Today, production has fallen to half a million barrels per day. The consequences will be even more drastic: Approximately 90% of Mexico's electricity generation is dependent on fossil fuels. Recently, the country's energy minister announced its goal to have 26% of its power-generation come from renewable sources. That may be little more than wishful thinking. Revenue from Pemex accounts for 40% of the country's budget.
It's only a matter of time before Mexico becomes a net oil importer. If so much of their budget is dependent on oil, how can they possibly afford it?”
Discovered in 1976, the Cantarell field was the second largest oil producing field in the world at one point. In 2000, Pemex began injecting nitrogen into the field. Three years later, Cantarell was pumping out 2.1 million barrels per day.
Since then, the field has been in an out-of-control death spiral that nothing could stop. Production started to decline at a rate of 14% per year. Today, production has fallen to half a million barrels per day. The consequences will be even more drastic: Approximately 90% of Mexico's electricity generation is dependent on fossil fuels. Recently, the country's energy minister announced its goal to have 26% of its power-generation come from renewable sources. That may be little more than wishful thinking. Revenue from Pemex accounts for 40% of the country's budget.
It's only a matter of time before Mexico becomes a net oil importer. If so much of their budget is dependent on oil, how can they possibly afford it?”
.JPG)
3 comments:
the great leveller is approaching.
1. a paranoiac is just a person in full possession of all the facts.
2. all that amazing playground architecture in Dubai is because the Saudis are worried about their economy when the oil is depleted, and thought tourism was the go. oops.
3. I love Three Days Of The Condor.
Redford ties Dunaway up in the bathroom: "It's OK I'm not gonna rape you or anything"
Dunaway: "It's early yet"
It is not only morally wrong, but economically stupid to "do" these wars in the Levant. 90% of known oil in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and it is just about gone. Another--what--10 years? It would be wrong if they had enough for 100. If we were doing it for moral reasons, we'd tell them they could sell to anybody, at any price they want. We're so objectively moral and all . . . .
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