Our venerable homeboy Aeswiren crunches some grim numbers for us. He starts with a quote from Daily Kos…
“From 1979 to 1989, real median income grew $2,965, (from $45,498 to $48,463,) and from 1989 to 2000, it grew $4,037, (from $48,463 to $52,500). But for the first time on record, over the business cycle from 2000-2007, incomes didn't rise — they fell slightly from $52,500 to $52,163. And with the weak labor market over this period, the real median income of working-age households fell significantly, from $60,804 to $58,718. This means that working families are weathering the current economic recession without the cushion that a robust expansion prior to the recession would have afforded them. We find that the average income for the middle 20% of households will likely decline by $2,456 in 2009, and by an additional $601 in 2010, for a total decline of $4,813 from 2007 to 2010. This is a decline in income of 9.3% for the typical household over these three years. Given the decline in income over the weak business cycle from 2000 to 2007, this means that after reaching an all-time peak in 2000, by 2010 real incomes for the typical household will likely have declined by $5,729, or 10.8%.”
Then he speculates…
“Was the dot com boom the last gasp of American capitalism? Having hit the high tide mark, is it all going to ebb away now, slowly, but inevitably? Note that China's economy is rebounding rapidly from the recession, but in America spending was still down in August and over the year bankruptcies are up 24%. Is it possible that America is actually bust? That the potential for income growth has gone, except for the wall street gamblers and the very, very rich? That the world's greatest economy, built on petroleum and the fertile soil of the midwest, is succumbing to a failure of investment in non-petroleum sourced energy added to the globalised loss of manufacturing jobs. Globalization has been essential for the takeoff of China and India, and also for stability in Mexico (though that may be ending too), but globalization came at the cost of eviscerating the employment prospects of America's working class. Without good working class incomes can the Consumer Society prosper? Add in the first chilly touch of Peak Oil and rising energy costs and perhaps we really are witnessing the end of the American dream. Considering the political temper of a large stratum of Americans, this could be a very dangerous development for the rest of the world.”
Then, in subsequent emails, he also notes…
"Did you see that item about youth unemployment in US? Up to 40% now. Like a 3rd world country, yeah? And now even Time mag, this week, is saying "10% unemployment-- get used to it!" Of course 10% is a polite term for something more like 15-20%, when you factor in all the "discouraged" ex workers, guys who stay home and live off the wife or gf's pitiful waitress money and so on?”
“From 1979 to 1989, real median income grew $2,965, (from $45,498 to $48,463,) and from 1989 to 2000, it grew $4,037, (from $48,463 to $52,500). But for the first time on record, over the business cycle from 2000-2007, incomes didn't rise — they fell slightly from $52,500 to $52,163. And with the weak labor market over this period, the real median income of working-age households fell significantly, from $60,804 to $58,718. This means that working families are weathering the current economic recession without the cushion that a robust expansion prior to the recession would have afforded them. We find that the average income for the middle 20% of households will likely decline by $2,456 in 2009, and by an additional $601 in 2010, for a total decline of $4,813 from 2007 to 2010. This is a decline in income of 9.3% for the typical household over these three years. Given the decline in income over the weak business cycle from 2000 to 2007, this means that after reaching an all-time peak in 2000, by 2010 real incomes for the typical household will likely have declined by $5,729, or 10.8%.”
Then he speculates…
“Was the dot com boom the last gasp of American capitalism? Having hit the high tide mark, is it all going to ebb away now, slowly, but inevitably? Note that China's economy is rebounding rapidly from the recession, but in America spending was still down in August and over the year bankruptcies are up 24%. Is it possible that America is actually bust? That the potential for income growth has gone, except for the wall street gamblers and the very, very rich? That the world's greatest economy, built on petroleum and the fertile soil of the midwest, is succumbing to a failure of investment in non-petroleum sourced energy added to the globalised loss of manufacturing jobs. Globalization has been essential for the takeoff of China and India, and also for stability in Mexico (though that may be ending too), but globalization came at the cost of eviscerating the employment prospects of America's working class. Without good working class incomes can the Consumer Society prosper? Add in the first chilly touch of Peak Oil and rising energy costs and perhaps we really are witnessing the end of the American dream. Considering the political temper of a large stratum of Americans, this could be a very dangerous development for the rest of the world.”
Then, in subsequent emails, he also notes…
"Did you see that item about youth unemployment in US? Up to 40% now. Like a 3rd world country, yeah? And now even Time mag, this week, is saying "10% unemployment-- get used to it!" Of course 10% is a polite term for something more like 15-20%, when you factor in all the "discouraged" ex workers, guys who stay home and live off the wife or gf's pitiful waitress money and so on?”
The secret word is Hellbound
.JPG)
1 comment:
Dead. Next question?
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