THE ONCE AND FUTURE DEPRESSION

Our really good friend Aeswiren has sent the following highly informative comments on my LA CityBeat Obama cover story. (See last Thursday.)

“One thing though that turned a crisis into the Depression was the Smoot-Hawley Act. America, basically put up trade barriers to European goods, and the Europeans did the same and trade collapsed and nobody made any money.”

“Dustbowl and Okies... yeah, but real story of the Depression, I believe was the decade of privation, hard times, expensive food etc. that the 30s became for a hundred million Americans, most of whom lived in the E. Coast cities. There was actual malnutrition, even starvation out in Appalachia and down south too, but the big theme, I think, is the pinched existence that most Americans endured for ten years or more, until WW2 lifted all boats with huge, Keynesistic money flows.”

“Oil – it's more complicated than that. The essential number to bear in mind, I'd suggest, is this – of the world's 15 largest oil fields, 9 are in decline now. This is the Peak. The big oil companies only control something like 7-10% of world oil reserves. What they possess is the distribution system and the refineries. What remains incredible- really-- is that oil rich countries run by mental rodents, have failed to build enough refining capacity for their own use – Iran. They have to import petrol! Blaming Big Oil is kinda 90s. The oil equation of the near future looks like OPEC+Russia=50% Market Control. Control Breakers include Canadian production, and potential new fields like that of the Amazon delta and the Bakken Formation in Dakota/Manitoba.”

“Nuclear. Modern fission nukes, especially metal cooled (ie liquid sodium) types, can be tuned up to get something like 70-80% of the energy available in Uranium fuel. Which compares favorably with the old gen PWRs that get 15%. But, of course, there's still the waste and the problem that within a century the affordable deposits of Uranium will be gone. Some near future types of fission nukes could, conceivably burn the radioactive waste left behind by the older PWRs. But, handling that shit, and transporting it, and all that looks impossible for error prone human societies without fucking up and turning some tract of Arkansas or wherever into another Chernobyl. Utimately, the answer comes down to renewables, high efficiency solar (recent breakthrough tech there, too...) geothermal etc. etc.”
“Plus-- nuclear Fusion-- for the concentrated high energy needs of huge, wasteful human cities. Thing to remember is that Fusion research was (deliberately) starved of money for the past 25 years. To the point where Europe is the leader in the field. The fingerprints of Exxon Mobil are said to be all over this, but it's not an easy story to track down. No surprise there. But if the US threw $500 Billion at the problem, the first commercial Tritium-Deuterium Fusion Reactors would be online in maybe 15 years. From that to Deuterium-Deuterium would be the next technological jump, and from that toWater-Deuterium in maybe another 25 years.”
“The wonder fungus. Did you read about that? Obscure S. American fungus that converts cellulose to gases that can be combined to make fuel. you should take a look at the wonder fungus... and so should I, so I know what the fuck this is...sounds amazing....could be a complete game changer, the kind of thing that we dream of.”
(Click here for more on the wonder fungus.)

He concludes...

“Good piece though. I like it.”

To which I can only reply, thanks bro, and note that he has also sent a longer and wilder rant on nuclear fusion that I’m holding for later.

The secret word is Education